in other words, panic or don't, mox nix, just keep spinning yer wheels

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A swine flu epidemic this fall and winter is likely to infect more people than a normal flu, but the virus will not be abnormally lethal. If it spreads rapidly after schools open, we will have to face it without vaccine, which will not arrive in substantial quantities until the swine flu epidemic has peaked.

The report that sparked concern was issued by the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. The council stressed that it was not predicting what would happen but was simply offering a scenario to help the government develop responses to a potential epidemic.

The report posited an epidemic that could produce symptoms in 60 million to 120 million people and cause as many as 90 million to seek medical attention; up to 1.8 million could be hospitalized, 300,000 could flood into crowded I.C.U.’s, and 30,000 to 90,000 people could die.

Even some members of the advisory panel think their estimates may be a bit high. In any case, this is a virus that is no more lethal, and possibly less lethal, than normal flu strains.